award to the ME

As the conflicts rage in the ME, especially with the new Islamic Caliphate, we got a mention today of one of the two main players in the unfolding situation not being mentioned by Western leaders or the press, Iran. As Prof Maryam Mirzakhani became the first woman to win the Fields Medal for maths. It is akin to the Nobel Prize for peace and academic areas. First awarded in 1938 since 1950 the Fields Medal is awarded every four years to between 2 and 4 mathematicians. The prize money is not as good as the Nobel Prize, C$ 16,000 against US$ 1 million. The other country is Saudi and its Gulf States. In Europe a long convoy of Russian white trucks are snaking their way towards eastern Ukraine looks like the next hot spot.

The metals lost ground in Asian time as traders absorbed Chinese and Japanese economic data. Economists expected Jul new Chinese loans would fall but it was the hefty nature that surprised, expanding by 385 billion yuan (Jne 1,079 bill), about half what was expected. Other domestic data was slower but expected industrial production yoy 9.0% (9.2%); retail sales yoy 12.2% (12.4%) and fixed non rural investment rose 17% ytd (17.3%). In Japan Q2 GDP dipped 1.7% (Q1 +1.5%), the explanation is the Apr increase in sales tax, that battered yoy GDP falling 6.8% (+6.1%). Like the US Q1 Polar Vortex effect, expect this to adjust quickly going forward. A report from the Metal Bulletin that Chinese authorities have frozen the bank accounts of a number of Chinese traders involved in the Qingdao financing probe was magnified in cu, the market seems to have forgotten that al is in that mix. Reflecting the general market metal sentiment, the global trading giant Glencore reported Q2 cu production increased 2.5% to 359,100 tonnes, led by improved output at the  Mutanda mine in the DRC. Their zn production declined 3.7% to 344,000 tonnes; pb off 5.7% at 69,900 tonnes and ni steady 26,800 tonnes. On the LME, the weekly commitment of traders (CoT) report showed funds scaled back their long zn position. Bloomberg reports that the Indonesian ban on the export of mineral ore will remain under the new administration. The action has seen plans for 64 new processing plants by 2017 totalling US$ 18 billion in investment. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry quotes 30 ni plants that will process 20 million tonnes of ore; 5 bauxite refineries; 2 zn and pb plants but no mention of any cu smelters. Jul Indonesian sn exports rose 9% to 7,645 tonnes, this is more of an administrative game than actual production. As the day wore on the metal prices remained in negative territory with cu testing 6900 and zn 2300, with oil and iron ore following.

Aug Australian Westpac consumer confidence improved to 98.5 (Jne 94.9). The Jul German CPI rose 0.3% (Jne 0.3%) yoy unchanged 0.8%. The UK unemployment in rolling 3 months to Jul was 6.4% (Jne 6.5), after that all the data could be prefaced with – less than expected – employment rose 167 k (254 k); the Jne Euroland industrial production fell 0.3% (May 0-1.1%) and yoy flat (0.6%). US Jul retail sales flat (in all senses of the word) (Jne 0.2%); ex auto sales up 0.1% (0.4%).